Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing airspace closures and disputes over water-sharing, sustaining the risk of a future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year.

Despite the ceasefire, the risk of a renewed conflict remains, which could again drive oil prices higher if Iran and/or its proxies begin attacking regional oil infrastructure and shipping.

The prime minister's escalating dispute with the national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan.

Prime Minister Luxon's recent trip to China marked a high-stakes diplomatic mission aimed at both deepening economic ties with Beijing and signaling New Zealand's more assertive regional posture.